Politics: Early predictions

Since I called the Democratic VP candidate as Biden about a month before the announcement, I'll toss out another early prediction...

Looking at the electoral map there are a few situations that could play out. If Obama gets Ohio OR Florida he wins, period. McCain MUST carry both states.

If McCain pulls Wisconsin and Michigan away from Obama, McCain wins. Obama should keep both, but it will cost him millions to do so. If he struggles with cash late in the campaign he could very well lose one of those states. If he loses one, it still comes down to my final verdict below.

Final verdict... you heard it hear first, and probably last...
North Carolina could very well be the decider. (No, not as in GW is the "decider.") And the deciding factor will be voter turnout. Obama better pray for large turnouts, especially of first time voters and Clintonian Republicans who've stayed home in the last few elections.

The challenge? Being on the East Coast polls will close before the rest of the states and thus, no last minute push could be swayed by how the other states go.

This is all academic though if Obama can pull one out in either Ohio or Florida, Florida being the more likely of the two. McCain could very well take Wisconsin so look for large amounts of money being poured into that state soon after the conventions are over. If there is a protracted fight there it will come down to a dollars game. Who has more for last minute media blitzes.

My Electoral Map

PS- McCain takes Mitt as VP.

I told you so... oil, sweet oil

This goes out to all the idiots out there who were buying sweet crude futures at $165 a barrel and above. I'm glad you're losing your shirt, or Timmy's college money or your retirement. Trying to capitalize on war and tough times is simply wrong. You tried to pull a fast one and got caught with your hand in the cookie jar. You deserve it.

For those not sure what I'm talking about oil dropped below the $118 a barrel mark this week after having been going through the roof and hitting almost $150 a barrel just one month before. Why was it going through the roof? It could have been global economic pressures caused by the continued industrialization of China, India and other such countries, or it could have been the prospect of America falling into another quagmire with an OPEC nation (Iran), or it may have simply been overall demand rising in the U.S. itself. It could have been, and all these played a role, but another driver no one wanted to talk about was the idiots buying the oil futures at well above current projections. What happens then? People get scared and jump on the bandwagon. Then, more people are buying at even hire prices. Fear and the lemur mentality take over.

Next time, don't follow the rest of the pack into the on-coming truck. And more importantly, don't try to make a quick buck at someone else's misfortune.