Monday, August 25, 2008

Politics: Early predictions

Since I called the Democratic VP candidate as Biden about a month before the announcement, I'll toss out another early prediction...

Looking at the electoral map there are a few situations that could play out. If Obama gets Ohio OR Florida he wins, period. McCain MUST carry both states.

If McCain pulls Wisconsin and Michigan away from Obama, McCain wins. Obama should keep both, but it will cost him millions to do so. If he struggles with cash late in the campaign he could very well lose one of those states. If he loses one, it still comes down to my final verdict below.

Final verdict... you heard it hear first, and probably last...
North Carolina could very well be the decider. (No, not as in GW is the "decider.") And the deciding factor will be voter turnout. Obama better pray for large turnouts, especially of first time voters and Clintonian Republicans who've stayed home in the last few elections.

The challenge? Being on the East Coast polls will close before the rest of the states and thus, no last minute push could be swayed by how the other states go.

This is all academic though if Obama can pull one out in either Ohio or Florida, Florida being the more likely of the two. McCain could very well take Wisconsin so look for large amounts of money being poured into that state soon after the conventions are over. If there is a protracted fight there it will come down to a dollars game. Who has more for last minute media blitzes.

My Electoral Map

PS- McCain takes Mitt as VP.

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